{"text":[[{"start":12.58,"text":"The US economy has done better than anyone would have thought over the past year in terms of economic output, labour market resilience and slowing inflation. "},{"start":20.634,"text":"Indeed, a recent US Treasury analysis of IMF data suggests it has done better than any of its international peers. "},{"start":27.339,"text":"A good chunk of this is down to the Biden administration’s post-pandemic bailout of consumers, who have continued spending, and the “new supply side” fiscal stimulus that has gone into supporting construction and manufacturing. "}],[{"start":38.99,"text":"Yet the president has seen little upside in terms of voter sentiment. "},{"start":42.757000000000005,"text":"Joe Biden ended 2023 with a 39 per cent job approval rating, according to Gallup polling, and his approval among even Democrats has ticked down. "},{"start":51.337,"text":"He trails Donald Trump in most polls. "},{"start":53.842,"text":"Elections are supposed to be about “the economy, stupid”, as the old James Carville quip goes. "},{"start":59.222,"text":"So what is going wrong here? "}],[{"start":61.410000000000004,"text":"A particular issue is inflation. "},{"start":63.777,"text":"The Biden team was slow to realise that while Bidenomics may be a success in terms of macroeconomic data, most Americans do not feel that. "},{"start":71.45700000000001,"text":"They notice double-digit increases in grocery or petrol prices over the past few years. "},{"start":76.262,"text":"They simply do not feel better off now than four years ago. "}],[{"start":80.59,"text":"That is changing, but slowly. "},{"start":83.044,"text":"While wage increases have trailed inflation, real earnings are finally beginning to rise. "},{"start":87.899,"text":"What’s more, consumer sentiment is a trailing indicator, and some estimates show that it can take up to a year for inflation-shocked consumers to feel more optimistic in the face of good data. "},{"start":97.392,"text":"Biden officials are counting on continued improvement into the second half of 2024, making it impossible to deny the strength of the economy. "}],[{"start":105.92,"text":"But politics in the US, as in many places, are increasingly less about data and more about polarisation. "},{"start":112.549,"text":"Far more Democrats than Republicans will say, when polled, that they believe the economy is doing well. "},{"start":118.292,"text":"This gap has been increasing since the 1990s, fuelled in no small part by the rise of partisan cable news and social media. "},{"start":125.422,"text":"Indeed, the administration is convinced that social media disinformation about the economy is affecting voters’ sentiment. "}],[{"start":132.76,"text":"Biden is facing other impediments, including some of his own making. "},{"start":136.87699999999998,"text":"An increasing number of voters, including in his own party, believe he is too old for the job at 81. "},{"start":142.757,"text":"That problem is exacerbated by the weakness and lack of political appeal of Kamala Harris as vice-president. "},{"start":148.42399999999998,"text":"The war in Gaza has also hurt Biden, raising the risk that young Democrats, upset by US support for Israel and the Netanyahu government’s devastation of Gaza following the October 7 massacre of Israelis by Hamas, may vote for a third-party candidate or not vote at all. "}],[{"start":164.06,"text":"The Biden team expects these hurdles will seem less formidable by later this year, assuming the Gaza war subsides, inflation falls, the job market remains robust and a massive advertising campaign pays off. "},{"start":175.939,"text":"But a lot has to go right for public sentiment to shift. "},{"start":178.94400000000002,"text":"Things could still go the other way if there is further disruption to oil supplies in the Middle East, or a big market correction. "}],[{"start":186.05,"text":"Former president Barack Obama recently criticised the Biden administration for running its re-election campaign out of the White House, rather than taking a more grassroots approach. "},{"start":195.229,"text":"Certainly, if it is to combat the highly effective, if often disingenuous, messaging of the Trump campaign, the Biden team needs to spend more time outside the Beltway. "},{"start":204.55900000000003,"text":"As well as highlighting the real perils to US democracy of a Trump return, it needs to show more energy in its campaign and vigour and imagination in how it intends to address ordinary voters’ concerns. "},{"start":214.77700000000002,"text":"The future of not only the Biden presidency but US leadership in the world depends on it. "}],[{"start":219.45000000000002,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/137682-1705031685.mp3"}