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The killing of Hassan Nasrallah came just a few days before the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. With its decapitation of Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes that it has finally seized the initiative in the battle with its regional enemies.
哈桑•纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)在哈马斯(Hamas)10月7日袭击以色列一周年纪念日前几天被杀死。随着以色列在黎巴嫩斩首黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)，以色列政府希望自己终于在与地区敌人的战斗中掌握了主动权。
The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further. But Israel is likely to see the current moment as too good an opportunity to miss. Many now want to press home the advantage, in the hope of striking a decisive blow against not just Hizbollah but Iran — and the “axis of resistance” that it leads, which includes Hamas, Hizbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.
美国敦促以色列不要进一步升级冲突。但以色列很可能会认为当前时机太好，不容错过。现在许多人希望抓住优势，希望对不仅仅是黎巴嫩真主党，而且是伊朗及其领导的“抵抗轴心”，包括哈马斯、伊拉克和叙利亚的民兵以及也门的胡塞武装，进行决定性打击。
In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s killing, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, talked about an opportunity for “changing the balance of power in the region for years”. If Israel can gravely damage the “axis of resistance”, its achievement would be quietly welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which also fear Iran and have fought a war against the Houthis.
在纳斯鲁拉被杀后，以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)谈到了一个“改变该地区权力平衡多年”的机会。如果以色列能够严重损害“抵抗轴心”，这一成就将在沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国中悄然受到欢迎，这两个国家也担心伊朗并与胡塞武装交战。
Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that establishing a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudi government also has good reason to fear the escalation of regional hostilities that could threaten their ambitious development plans.
与以色列政府不同，沙特继续坚持认为，建立巴勒斯坦国对实现中东持久和平至关重要。沙特政府也有充分的理由担心地区敌对行动的升级，这可能会威胁到他们雄心勃勃的发展计划。
For Israel, changing the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that set in after October 7. The Hamas attack was a humiliation for Israel’s intelligence services. The country’s reputation for always being one step ahead of its enemies was a key part of its deterrence strategy. That reputation was lost in a single day last year, when Israel was comprehensively outwitted by Hamas.
对于以色列来说，改变力量平衡还涉及扭转10月7日之后形成的失败和困惑的国家叙事。哈马斯的袭击对以色列的情报机构来说是一种羞辱。以色列总是领先敌人一步的声誉是其威慑战略的关键部分。去年的一天，以色列被哈马斯全面智胜，这一声誉在那一天彻底丧失。
The subsequent war in Gaza has failed to restore Israel’s pride or its security. Despite an operation that has caused massive civilian deaths, Israel has been unable to free all its hostages. It is also losing the battle for international public opinion, and has been accused of genocide in hearings at the International Court of Justice.
随后的加沙战争未能恢复以色列的自豪感或安全。尽管行动造成了大量平民死亡，但以色列仍未能解救所有人质。以色列还在国际舆论战中失利，并在国际法院(International Court of Justice)的听证会上被指控犯有种族灭绝罪。
The series of attacks on Hizbollah — starting with the exploding pagers, which killed or maimed so many of the organisation’s footsoldiers — has restored the reputation of Israeli intelligence and the morale of the Israeli public. The fact that Hizbollah is detested by many Lebanese citizens and some in the wider Arab world, also complicates the normal condemnation of Israel.
对黎巴嫩真主党的一系列袭击——从爆炸的寻呼机开始，这些袭击导致该组织的许多步兵伤亡——恢复了以色列情报机构的声誉和以色列公众的士气。黎巴嫩真主党在许多黎巴嫩公民和阿拉伯世界的一些人中受到憎恶，这也使得对以色列的正常谴责变得更加复杂。
The destruction wrought on Hizbollah potentially puts Iran’s government in the most dangerous international situation it has faced for decades. The presence of a powerful Iran-backed militant force with a huge arsenal of rockets — right on Israel’s northern border — was always regarded as key to Iran’s deterrent power against Israel. The theory was that the Israelis would avoid a direct attack on Iran — partly for fear that Tehran would unleash Hizbollah.
对黎巴嫩真主党造成的破坏可能会使伊朗政府陷入几十年来最危险的国际局势。伊朗支持的强大武装力量，拥有庞大的火箭库，就在以色列北部边境，一直被视为伊朗对以色列威慑力量的关键。理论上，以色列会避免对伊朗发动直接攻击，部分原因是担心德黑兰会释放黎巴嫩真主党。
Now, with its proxy and ally reeling, Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades.
现在，随着其代理人和盟友的动摇，伊朗面临着两难境地。它并没有直接援助哈马斯。如果它在黎巴嫩真主党遭受重创时也袖手旁观，它的盟友会感到被背叛，以色列可能会更加大胆，甚至可能包括对伊朗核设施的直接攻击，这是以色列几十年来一直在威胁的。
On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now.
另一方面，如果伊朗直接卷入与以色列的战争，政权的生存将面临风险，特别是因为美国很可能卷入冲突。美国人至少在理论上发誓不再进行中东地区的战争。但他们也坚决致力于保卫以色列，并已经证明他们有能力在中东地区引发政权更迭。美国领导的伊拉克战争的血腥混乱后果仍然是华盛顿最近而痛苦的记忆。但众所周知，伊朗已经非常接近拥有制造核武器的能力，这将增加以色列现在发动打击的诱惑。
Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East.
一些激动的以色列支持者将当前时刻与1967年的六日战争(Six Day War)相提并论——这场突如其来且意外的以色列胜利改变了中东地区的力量平衡。
But while there are clearly opportunities for Israel in the current situation, there are also massive risks. Hizbollah is reeling but it may still be able to deploy what remains of its arsenal of missiles and hit Israel’s major cities repeatedly. If Israel follows through on its threats of a ground invasion of Lebanon, it could find itself in a quagmire-like conflict that runs for years — at a time when its forces are already at war in Gaza.
然而，在当前形势下，以色列确实存在机遇，但也面临巨大风险。黎巴嫩真主党虽然受到重创，但仍有可能使用其剩余的导弹库，反复袭击以色列的主要城市。如果以色列兑现对黎巴嫩进行地面入侵的威胁，可能会陷入一场持续多年的泥潭般的冲突中，而此时其军队已经在加沙参与战争。
Over the long run, the death and destruction in Lebanon caused by Israeli air strikes is likely to create a new generation of Hizbollah soldiers. Some 60 per cent of Hamas fighters are thought to be orphans from previous conflicts.
从长远来看，以色列空袭在黎巴嫩造成的死亡和破坏可能会培养出新一代的黎巴嫩真主党士兵。据估计，约60%的哈马斯战士是前几次冲突中的孤儿。
Hizbollah and Hamas are both grievously damaged. But Israel has yet to answer how Gaza will be governed after the war is over. Lebanon’s weak caretaker government may well be incapable of moving into any vacuum left by Hizbollah, in which case Israel could have a failed state on its borders.
黎巴嫩真主党和哈马斯都受到了严重的损害。但是以色列尚未回答战争结束后加沙将如何治理的问题。黎巴嫩软弱的看守政府可能无法填补黎巴嫩真主党留下的真空，如果是这样，以色列可能在其边境上面临一个失败的国家。
Netanyahu may dream of bringing about a new regional order in the Middle East. But regional chaos — with the all the dangers that it brings — seems a more likely outcome.
内塔尼亚胡可能梦想在中东建立新的地区秩序。但地区混乱及其带来的所有危险似乎更有可能发生。