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By assassinating Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel has dealt a grievous blow to one of its most powerful foes. Over three decades, Nasrallah transformed the group, with Iranian backing, into the Middle East’s most heavily armed non-state actor and the dominant political force in Lebanon. His killing has severely wounded the movement, while underlining Israel’s military superiority over Iran’s so-called axis of resistance.
通过暗杀黎巴嫩真主党(Hizbollah)领导人哈桑•纳斯鲁拉(Hassan Nasrallah)，以色列对其最强大的敌人之一造成了沉重打击。三十多年来，纳斯鲁拉在伊朗的支持下，将该组织转变为中东地区武装最为强大的非国家行为体，并成为黎巴嫩的主要政治力量。他的被杀对该运动造成了严重伤害，同时突显了以色列在所谓的抵抗轴心上对伊朗的军事优势。
Many other senior Hizbollah figures have been killed in Israeli air strikes. But the relentless bombardment has wrought devastation on Lebanon, spreading fear and panic across the nation. More than 1,000 people have been killed in the past two weeks, and up to 1mn forced from their homes. As the bombs rain down, they fear what comes next. Many in Lebanon opposed Nasrallah and blamed Hizbollah for the crisis-ridden country’s ills. But Hizbollah also represents a large swath of Shia society in a fragile nation where Muslim and Christian sects coexist uneasily. Under Nasrallah, the movement was cohesive and disciplined. In his absence, many worry it might fragment or become more extreme.
许多其他高级黎巴嫩真主党人物在以色列空袭中被杀。但持续的轰炸在黎巴嫩造成了毁灭性的破坏，使全国陷入恐惧和恐慌。在过去两周内，有超过1000人被杀，多达100万人被迫离开家园。随着炸弹的不断落下，人们担心接下来会发生什么。黎巴嫩的许多人反对纳斯鲁拉，并将黎巴嫩真主党归咎于这个危机四伏的国家的问题。但黎巴嫩真主党也代表了在这个脆弱的国家中不安稳共存的穆斯林和基督教教派中的大片什叶派社会。在纳斯鲁拉的领导下，该运动是团结和有纪律的。在他缺席的情况下，许多人担心它可能会分裂或变得更加极端。
Israelis, too, should be wary. They celebrated the death of their foe, but having a failed state on their northern border, or a more extremist enemy bent on revenge, will not serve their security interests. Hizbollah has been battered, but it will not disappear. History has shown that when one militant leader is killed, another steps into the breach, often more radical than the former.
以色列人也应该保持警惕。他们庆祝了敌人的死亡，但在他们的北部边境上有一个失败的国家，或者一个更极端的敌人寻求复仇，这不符合他们的安全利益。黎巴嫩真主党已经受到了打击，但它不会消失。历史表明，当一个激进的领导人被杀死时，另一个人会接替他的位置，通常比前任更激进。
As Israel prepares to mark the grim anniversary of Hamas’s horrific October 7 attack, which killed 1,200 people and ignited the year of conflict, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should take his wins and chart a new course. He should embrace the diplomatic off-ramps that have been available for months to end the war in Gaza, secure the release of hostages, and halt the conflict with Hizbollah.
在以色列即将纪念哈马斯10月7日发动的恐怖袭击之际——该袭击造成1200人死亡，并引发了一年的冲突——以色列总理本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)应当把握现有的成果，规划新的方向。他应该利用数月以来已有的外交途径，结束加沙的战争，确保人质获释，并停止与真主党的冲突。
After pummelling Gaza for 12 months, Israel has killed many of Hamas’s senior leaders and severely depleted its military capacity. The offensive has left Gaza in ruins, and more than 41,000 Gazans have been killed, according to Palestinian officials. Hamas will not be able to control Gaza or repeat the atrocities of a year ago. On the northern front, Netanyahu’s stated aim is to ensure the safe return of 60,000 Israelis displaced by Hizbollah’s rocket fire, which began a day after the October 7 attack. But that will not happen as long as the conflict continues.
在对加沙进行了长达12个月的猛烈攻击之后，以色列已经杀害了哈马斯的许多高级领导人，并严重削弱了其军事能力。据巴勒斯坦官员称，攻势已使加沙成为一片废墟，41,000多名加沙人丧生。哈马斯无法控制加沙，也无法重演一年前的暴行。在北部战线，内塔尼亚胡宣称的目标是确保因黎巴嫩真主党发射火箭弹而流离失所的6万名以色列人安全返回。但只要冲突仍在继续，这就不可能实现。
Worryingly, however, the chances of Netanyahu and his far-right government banking their military gains and choosing the path of diplomacy over yet more war appear as remote as ever. Since killing Nasrallah on Friday, Israel has continued to pound Lebanon, launched limited ground incursions across the border in a potential prelude to a land invasion, and struck Houthi rebels in Yemen. Netanyahu has also stepped up his belligerent rhetoric against Iran.
然而令人担忧的是，内塔尼亚胡及其极右翼政府将军事收益转化为选择外交而非更多战争的可能性似乎依然渺茫。自上周五击毙纳斯鲁拉以来，以色列继续轰炸黎巴嫩，发起有限的地面入侵，这可能是全面陆地入侵的前奏，并打击了也门的胡塞叛军。内塔尼亚胡还加大了对伊朗的好战言论。
The US and Israel’s other allies preach de-escalation but are unable or unwilling to rein in Netanyahu, whose political interests are served by keeping Israel locked in conflict. The Biden administration looks ever more impotent as the US election nears, despite the risk that Netanyahu could seek to drag Washington into a war with Iran.
美国和以色列的其他盟友呼吁缓和局势，但无力或不愿制止内塔尼亚胡，因为让以色列陷入冲突符合他的政治利益。随着美国大选的临近，拜登政府显得越来越无能，尽管内塔尼亚胡可能试图将华盛顿拖入与伊朗的战争。
Israel’s desire to restore its deterrent is one thing. But careering headlong into forever wars, giddy on its tactical success, with no clear strategy or end game, is not a recipe for long-term security and stability, for Israel or the region. The Middle East has witnessed its darkest year in decades. The killing and destruction must stop.
以色列希望恢复其威慑力是一回事。但是，盲目地陷入永久战争，对战术上的成功感到晕头转向，却没有明确的战略或终局，这对以色列或该地区的长期安全与稳定来说并不是一个良方。中东经历了几十年来最黑暗的一年。杀戮和破坏必须停止。