{"text":[[{"start":12.46,"text":"The writer, a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore, is author of ‘Has China Won? "}],[{"start":19.28,"text":"In Alaska last month Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, gave a public dressing down on democracy and human rights to Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi, China’s top foreign policy officials. "},{"start":32.822,"text":"They did so in the confident belief that the US knows how to triumph slowly and patiently over a communist adversary. "}],[{"start":39.980000000000004,"text":"Yet even though the US won the cold war, China may understand better why Soviet communism failed. "},{"start":45.734,"text":"It is determined not to make the same mistakes. "}],[{"start":49.32000000000001,"text":"China’s analysis would match that of George Kennan, the US master strategist. "},{"start":54.062000000000005,"text":"Kennan wisely predicted that the cold war would be determined by Washington’s ability “to create among the peoples of the world generally the impression of a country which knows what it wants, which is coping successfully with the problem of its internal life and with the responsibilities of a world power”. "},{"start":68.19200000000001,"text":"Here’s the shocking comparison. "},{"start":70.10900000000001,"text":"Vis-à-vis the Soviet Union, the US was ahead on all three counts. "},{"start":74.427,"text":"Vis-à-vis China, it is not. "}],[{"start":77.15,"text":"The first indicator of the Soviet collapse came from negative trends in indicators of social wellbeing: life expectancy, infant mortality, suicides, opioid (or alcohol) addiction. "},{"start":88.56700000000001,"text":"Today it’s the US that is doing badly. "},{"start":91.04700000000001,"text":"In contrast to other developed societies, US life expectancy is declining. "},{"start":95.81400000000001,"text":"The educational standards of US teenagers lag behind those of many advanced industrial countries. "}],[{"start":102.26,"text":"If Kennan were alive today, he would be shocked to see the US spending $5tn on unnecessary wars, while the bottom 50 per cent of Americans have seen their incomes stagnate for decades. "},{"start":112.93900000000001,"text":"There is a “sea of despair” among white working classes. "}],[{"start":116.93,"text":"China is doing the opposite of the former Soviet Union. "},{"start":120.534,"text":"China believes the Soviet leaders failed because they lost touch with their own people, ignoring their welfare while engaged in foreign wars. "},{"start":127.677,"text":"China hasn’t fought a major war in 40 years. "},{"start":130.469,"text":"Unlike the Soviet Union, it controls military expenditures. "}],[{"start":135.27,"text":"No country has improved its people’s wellbeing as much as China. "},{"start":139.174,"text":"In terms of human development, the past 40 years have been the best four decades in 4,000 years of Chinese history. "}],[{"start":146.53,"text":"China still faces many internal problems. "},{"start":149.63400000000001,"text":"Success is not guaranteed. "},{"start":151.702,"text":"Yet against the backdrop of a century or more of humiliation and suffering, the lives of the Chinese people have never been better. "},{"start":158.219,"text":"Hence, the US cold war strategy will not work. "}],[{"start":161.95,"text":"The Biden administration is making a strategic mistake in carrying on with Donald Trump’s policies towards China. "},{"start":168.21699999999998,"text":"Curiously, Biden himself declared in 2019 that Trump’s trade war had failed to help US workers. "},{"start":174.072,"text":"The data backs Biden’s assessment. "},{"start":176.23899999999998,"text":"In 2009, the size of China’s retail goods market was $1.4tn, compared with $4tn for the US. "},{"start":184.15699999999998,"text":"By 2019, after three years of Trump’s trade war, China’s market was approaching $6tn, bigger than that of the US at $5.5tn. "}],[{"start":193.89999999999998,"text":"Even if Biden’s administration wished to change course on China, it is constrained by a rising anti-Chinese mood in the US body politic. "},{"start":201.94199999999998,"text":"Unwise steps taken under Trump remain in place: the closure of China’s consulate in Houston, restrictions on Chinese journalists, ending the Peace Corps and Fulbright Scholarship programmes in China. "}],[{"start":213.43999999999997,"text":"Biden administration officials are clearly afraid to be seen as “soft” on China. "},{"start":218.05699999999996,"text":"However, if they wanted, they could construct a strong case for reversing Trump’s policies. "},{"start":223.12399999999997,"text":"They could point to the reality that the Trump administration actually strengthened China and Xi Jinping, its president. "},{"start":229.00399999999996,"text":"How? "}],[{"start":230.51999999999998,"text":"The Chinese people can see that their government has protected them well in the Covid-19 emergency. "},{"start":235.81199999999998,"text":"Meanwhile, the Trump administration floundered, resulting in the deaths of more than half a million Americans. "},{"start":241.55399999999997,"text":"When US vice-president Mike Pence and secretary of state Mike Pompeo hurled insults at China, they only strengthened the standing of the Chinese government. "},{"start":249.68399999999997,"text":"Similarly, most Chinese thought that their policymakers won the public argument in Alaska. "},{"start":254.539,"text":"So too, did many other Asians. "}],[{"start":257.78999999999996,"text":"All this points to a wiser course available to the Biden administration. "},{"start":262.01899999999995,"text":"It should declare, as Biden did earlier, that Trump was wrong on China. "},{"start":266.31199999999995,"text":"It should then press the pause button on the US-Chinese geopolitical contest, while assessing whether Washington can formulate a better strategy against such a formidable competitor. "}],[{"start":276.53999999999996,"text":"Ending the trade war with China would boost economic growth in the US, helping Biden in the 2022 midterm elections. "},{"start":283.532,"text":"And most of the world would cheer if the Biden administration pressed the pause button, especially while Covid-19 is still raging. "}],[],[{"start":290.97999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/001092073-1617845303.mp3"}